BY RAYYANU BALA

The prediction of virtually all political analysts in Nasarawa state regarding who would clinch the APC primary election for Nasarawa South senate slot  came to fruition with the declaration of Governor Umar Tanko  Al-makura as winner of the election having polled 1,262 votes to beat Arc. Salihu Hussaini Egyebola who secured 312 votes, a difference of over 950 votes. Most political analysts, including yours sincerely, had predicted that Governor Al-makura would beat whoever contested with him in the APC primary election for Nasarawa South Senate seat and the result has proved us right.

For example, in my analysis in a write up published in Nasarawa Eye online and in some social media platforms some eight months ago which I titled: “Nasarawa South Senate seat: Al-makura as frontrunner”, I predicted in the first instance that baring any last minute change of mind, Governor Al-makura was going for the senate seat of Nasarawa South come 2019. I also insisted that his coming out to contest for the seat was as certain as sunrise. I further reasoned that going by Al-makura’s body language and in recognition of the tacit supports promoters of Ta’al for senate were getting all over the places, some from known and some from unknown quarters, Governor Al-makura would certainly go for this senate seat.

In the write up I also asked the question, “Can Governor Al-makura make it to the senate if he contests the election?”  I then went on to say ‘Yes’ as the answer. Going further, I said, “To tell ourselves the home truth, nobody is capable of beating him (Al-makura) at the APC primary as he has, virtually everything set for him to grab. The delegates would go for him regardless of whoever is contesting with him; his securing the APC ticket is definite”

“As things stand, I cannot see anybody from Nasarawa South within the APC fold who can beat Al-makura in this contest. Even though Arc. Salihu Hussaini Egyebola has openly shown interest to go for the seat; many things would count against him. Even the over 300 votes which he (Arc. Egyebola) scored in just conclude primary, I envisaged he would get them hence I said: “Alago votes may likely go to him but the number of the votes may not swing the win to his favour”

In my analysis I further itemized factors that might likely work against Arc. Egyebola, chief among which were his financial strength. I said thus: “Some political analysts are expressing the opinion that Arc. Egyebola has no financial muscle to give Al-makura a run for his money” At the context of Arc. Egyebola’s financial incapacitation, I highlighted that “Giving the character and behavior of our people, you cannot make it as a politician to any elective office without spraying money around. It is an indisputable fact that when one makes himself available for any elective office, the first question people  ask freely without mincing words is, “A kwai ka yan aiki?” meaning does one has the money to toss  around?

In defense of the important role money plays in politics however, I said in the write up that: “There is no country that practices democratic system and money is not a factor in winning elections; the kind of politics we play, places emphasis on money, by this I am afraid, Arc. Egyebola may not get near to winning the APC ticket. Not only him, I cannot see any person who can beat Governor Al-makura in the APC primary in Nasarawa South at least, giving the likely scenario that may unfold at that time”

On the secondary election, I posited thus: “Just as the coast is going to be clear for Governor Al-makura in the APC primary, equally the coast might likely going to be clear for him at general elections” I went further to add that “Although I am not a predictor of future events, but going by the likely scenarios that may play out in the PDP which is the only strong opposition party in the state, Governor Al-makura may clinch the senate seat in a more glitzy way”

I further analyzed that the contest in the PDP with regard to Nasarawa South senate seat from all indication was going to be, between the incumbent Senator Solomon Adokwe and incumbent House Member, Hon Mohammed Ogoshi Onawo. I then asserted, “Baring any last minutes change, the fight is going to be a straight one between Adokwe and Onawo; even though they both belong to same ethnic cluster, pundits posit that whoever clinches the PDP ticket among them, Al-makura would flatly  knock him down at general election”. On why Governor Al-makura would flatly knock down either of them. I said, “Political watchers in Nasarawa state believes that the poor performance of both Solomon Adokwe and Hon. Mohammed Ogoshi Onawo at National Assembly would certainly count against them. They (political watchers) stressed that both Adokwe and Onawo have not impacted positively on the lives of the people of their constituencies for all the period of their stays at the National Assembly”.

I went on, “They (political watchers) went further to add that even in Agwatashi where Senator Adokwe hails from, there was nothing to point at as dividend of democracy courtesy of Senator Adokwe. Equally in Doma the home town of Hon. Ogoshi, nothing to point at courtesy of Onawo; both of them (Adokwe and Onawo) have not done anything for their immediate communities talk less of the entire Nasarawa South”

On why Governor Al-makura will have an edge over any of them, I maintained that “Governor Al-makura has many things to point at as part of his contribution to the development of Nasarawa south which of-course are just needless to enumerate. But suffice it to say that, as somebody who is serving his second term as governor, Al-makura has indeed, touched the lives of thousands in the Nasarawa South Senatorial district, which the people cannot forget in a hurry”

Apart from performance and incumbency factor, I went further to add: “Governor Al-makura also has the wherewithal to give any person that emerges from other political parties a crushing defeat. Already, the chorus song on the lips of both the aged and the young in Nasarawa South is: Nasarawa South Sai Ta’al”

Finally, in my analysis I insisted that “From the scenarios that may unfold during APC primary and also at the general elections, Governor Al-makura may clinch the Senate seat of Nasarawa South, if he throws his hat into the ring”

Now that Al-makura has defeated Arc. Egyebola in the just concluded APC primary as we earlier envisaged our prediction too, on secondary elections will also come to fruition. Al-makura will defeat Adokwe overwhelmingly.