By Isa Galanbi Lafia

The recent analytical report by Oriola A. Opeyemi on the 2027  Nasarawa gubernatorial ticket race offers a well-researched and data-driven overview of public sentiment and engagement. The breakdown of mentions, sentiment shares, and emerging narratives is valuable for understanding the complex political landscape in Nasarawa State. However, while I largely agree with the report’s insights, especially regarding the diversity and competitiveness of the race, I believe it underestimates Senator Ahmed Wadada Aliyu’s real political momentum and appeal.

First, it is undeniable that Senator Wadada leads in overall mentions with 208, outpacing other candidates significantly. This is a crucial metric reflecting his high visibility and resonance among the electorate. Mentions are not mere numbers—they symbolize active engagement, discussion, and interest in a candidate’s prospects. The presence of coordinated networks like the “Wadada Impact Network” further underscores his strong organizational backing and grassroots mobilization, which are essential in a highly competitive primary.

I agree with Oriola’s recognition of this dynamic. Senator Wadada’s ability to generate conversations and maintain a visible public profile places him in a formidable position to capitalize on the evolving political climate. Visibility, after all, often precedes votes, and his name is firmly entrenched in the minds of APC stakeholders and voters alike.

Where I respectfully diverge is in the emphasis placed on positive sentiment share as the primary indicator of electability. The report highlights Baraden Nasarawa’s 30 percent positive sentiment lead, positioning him as the frontrunner in terms of public approval. However, sentiment analysis of online comments can be a double-edged sword, often skewed by smaller, more passionate supporter groups that may not represent the broader voting population.

Senator Wadada’s comparatively lower positive sentiment share (11 percent) may reflect a more balanced or cautious public discourse around his candidacy rather than a lack of approval. Given his significantly higher mention count, it is logical that a larger, more diverse group of commentators engage with his profile, including critics, supporters, and undecideds, thus diluting the apparent positive sentiment percentage.

Moreover, in grassroots politics, visibility and active engagement often translate into greater influence than purely positive sentiment metrics. The size and activity of Senator Wadada’s support network demonstrate his tangible organizational strength—a critical factor in winning primaries and general elections.

The report notes that overall sentiment is heavily neutral (82.1 percent), which suggests a largely undecided electorate still open to persuasion. This is a fertile ground for a candidate like Senator Wadada, whose robust network and high name recognition give him the tools to convert neutral observers into committed supporters.

Contrary to framing neutrality as a challenge, it should be viewed as a sign of latent potential, especially for a candidate with Wadada’s demonstrated ability to mobilize and sustain dialogue within the political ecosystem. The ongoing engagement and discussions signal a lively political interest that Wadada is well-positioned to harness.

In conclusion, while Dr. Musa Ahmed Mohammed (Baraden Nasarawa) and Dr. Faisal Shuaib deserve recognition for their positive sentiment shares and technocratic appeal, Senator Ahmed Wadada Aliyu’s commanding lead in overall mentions and his visible, organized support network cannot be overlooked. His influence within the APC grassroots and his ability to generate sustained public interest make him the true frontrunner in this contest.

As the primaries approach, the combination of name recognition, active engagement, and strategic grassroots mobilization will be decisive. It is vital that analysts, party stakeholders, and voters alike appreciate the multifaceted nature of political momentum—where mentions, networks, and the ability to convert neutrality into votes matter as much as positive sentiment.

The narrative around Senator Wadada Aliyu is not just one of presence but of growing power and potential. To disregard this is to misunderstand the dynamics of Nasarawa’s evolving political landscape.