By Rayyanu Bala

Let me begin by stating that the two central figures I will mention in this piece namely: former Governor Tanko Al-Makura and retired IGP Adamu, are my elder brothers. They have known me since my childhood and are both aware of the modest contributions I made to their respective journeys to the peak of their professions. Therefore, this analysis should not be misconstrued or given any ulterior interpretation, as I still hold them in high regard.

However, when it comes to analyzing the truth, as I intend to do here, one should not be influenced by closeness or personal relationships. Allah has commanded us to speak the truth, even if it is against ourselves or our parents. On this basis, it amount to disservice if you are still wondering whether the political crisis rocking Lafia Local Government is about Hon. Mohammad Haliru Arabo, the issue at stake goes beyond Arabo.
Beyond the suspension, press statements, accusations and counter-accusations, as well as political outrage in Lafia lies a much bigger and more consequential issue. The issue has much to do with a battle for the soul of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Nasarawa State between former Governor Tanko Al-Makura and the incumbent Governor, Engr. Abdullahi Sule.

This reality is hardly disputable. We just have to call a spade a spade.

Politics especially Nigerian politics as we are all aware, is not about what it claims to be on the surface. A deeper interrogation of events in Nasarawa State today leads to one clear conclusion: Lafia has become the theatre of war where a much larger power contest is being played out. And at the core of the crises is who controls the political structure of the APC in Nasarawa State.

For years, former Governor Tanko Al-Makura maintained an iron grip on the party’s machinery. His network of loyalists and political influence survived long after he left office. Governor Abdullahi Sule, on the other hand, has spent much of his tenure consolidating authority and steadily asserting himself as the undisputed leader of the party in the state.

What we are witnessing in Lafia therefore is a direct clash between these two forces.

Let us be honest with ourselves. The political crisis in Lafia Local Government did not fall from the sky, nor did it originate from legislative oversight or administrative infractions. Those explanations are merely convenient cover stories. The real problem has a name and it is control of the APC, we take it or leave it.

If we are serious about understanding what is happening in Lafia, we must stop dancing around the truth. Lafia has become the battlefield which Al-Makura has chosen for his latest attempt to reassert dominance over the APC in Nasarawa State.

During his years in office, he ruled not just as governor but as the unquestioned political godfather of the state. Party structures, appointments, and political loyalties revolved almost entirely around him.

However, the question tempting for answer here is: what is the sin of Governor Abdullahi Sule which warrant Al-makura to take this hard-line position to his planned transition? His so-called “sin” has been his refusal to remain a placeholder. From the moment he began asserting himself as the leader of the party, Al-Makura grew uncomfortable. Rather than supporting party stability, he chose to go the other way. Lafia is simply where that long-running resentment finally boiled over.

Hon. Mohammad Haliru Arabo has, in many respects, become collateral damage in this drawn-out battle between Al-makura and Sule. Arabo’s perceived alignment with former IGP made him a useful pawn. All the political tension and outrage we are experiencing in Lafia can be seen and appreciated within this context.

What is happening in Lafia is, in essence, a test of Governor Sule’s strength, and to weigh how he will respond to such political backlash.

Al-Makura understands one crucial fact that time is no longer on his side, since Governor Sule is in control of the executive arm, the party structure, and the momentum of governance. This reality is unsettling for anyone who wants to remain relevant politically. As a result, Al-makura is doing what political godfathers often do when they sense decline, they create a crisis large enough to force negotiations on their own terms.

Reports of his decision to settle on retired IGP Adamu as his preferred governorship aspirant only confirm this strategy. This move is not about what is best for Nasarawa State; it is about preserving relevance beyond 2027. That, fundamentally, is what is driving the current political instability in Lafia.

On the other hand, Governor Abdullahi Sule’s calculated efforts is to see how he can take full control of the APC independent of Al-makura’s influence just to enable him anoint his successor. Yes, any governor who fails to secure firm control of his party risks leaving office with deep regrets.

The APC in Nasarawa cannot move forward while one man insists on ruling from behind the curtain.

Ultimately, this political crisis is not just about Lafia Local Government. It is about who calls the shots in APC in Nasarawa state. It is about whose political vision defines the party’s future. And it is about whether the old order can withstand the reality of a new order.

However, as things presently stand, Tanko Al-Makura has reportedly settled on a candidate he believes possesses the political stature and influence to serve as his preferred candidate in the unfolding contest with Abdullahi Sule, in the person of retired IGP Adamu.

All indications therefore suggest that when the dust finally settles, Governor Abdullahi Sule will emerge firmly in control. The party will close ranks, the crisis will fade into political history, and the APC in Nasarawa will move forward under Sule’s clear command structure.

But to achieved all these Governor Abdullahi Sule has to act decisively by identifying and endorsing a credible successor with the political capacity to effectively counter Al-Makura’s anointed choice. An early and strategic declaration would consolidate support and provide much-needed clarity within the political space. Failure to do so may place Governor sule at a strategic disadvantage.