An interesting feature of many languages is their inclusion of proverbs. In fact, some languages are especially renowned for their vibrant oral tradition and cultural heritage expressed through proverbs. The Hausa language is one of these—full of proverbs, many of which accurately mirror life’s realities.

One such proverb is, ‘ana zaton wuta a makera, sai aka ganta a masaka’, which literally means: we expected fire at the blacksmith’s workshop, but it appeared at the weaver’s place. It is used when something unexpected happens in an unlikely location or from an unlikely person.

The import of this proverb was evident in real-time at the recent caucus meeting of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), where, surprisingly, one of the most unanticipated speeches came from the least expected individual: Vice President Kashim Shettima.

When he mounted the podium to deliver his speech, Vice President Shettima began quite well before veering off when he stated: “Only a fool, hell-bent on a suicidal path, or an outright imposter can dare to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027”

If such a statement had been made by one of the senior lawmakers who, despite having served as a governor and minister, is well-known for loose talk, most Nigerians would have shrugged it off. After all, recklessness has become his trademark. But coming from Vice President Shettima? That was surprising.

Shettima’s message was clear: challenging President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 would be futile, something only madmen would attempt. To him, his principal is simply unbeatable.

Coming from a politician I have great respect for, a man who spent most of his political career in opposition and remained there until the opposition finally seized power in 2015, such audacity seems not only ironic but utterly unlike him.

How else can one interpret such a declaration from a politician who saw firsthand how the Peoples Democratic Party once claimed it would rule Nigeria for a hundred years, only for the 2015 elections to shatter that illusion?

However, this is typical behaviour among Nigerian politicians in power: a dangerous detachment from reality. How else can someone who emerged through competitive elections as governor, senator, and now vice president, argue that only insane people would dare challenge the president in 2027?

What makes Shettima’s statement even more perplexing is the fact that the election which brought him into office in 2023 was one of the most fiercely contested in Nigeria’s democratic history. President Tinubu won by the narrowest margin ever recorded since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999.

Shettima is well aware that if the two major opposition candidates, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, had not gone their separate ways and split the opposition votes, there wouldn’t have been a Tinubu presidency as we talk about today.

Every election cycle in Nigeria produces serious contenders for the presidency. There is no indication that 2027 will be an exception. Shettima knows this. And if he chooses to ignore it, let him be reminded: President Tinubu’s narrow electoral victory at the 2023 polls, combined with policies that continue to impoverish citizens, clearly suggests that the next election will be even more fierce.

The 2015 presidential polls show that incumbents can be defeated, especially when citizens are as disappointed as they are today. Economic hardship has become our daily reality. The middle class has all but vanished. Insecurity remains unresolved. Government borrowing continues unchecked. Yet someone believes the 2027 election is already settled?

Shettima’s confidence is difficult to understand when juxtaposed with the grim realities Nigerians face under an administration that continues to roll out ill-thought-out policies. The removal of fuel subsidy led to an astronomical increase in fuel prices, supposedly to free up funds. Instead, the government continues to borrow, while the implementation of the budget remains unclear. As of December 2025, many Nigerians cannot tell whether it is the 2024 or 2025 budget that is being implemented.

Nigeria ranked lowest in life expectancy in the 2025 United Nations global health report. The report is a reflection of a failing healthcare, poor living conditions, and malnutrition, among others.

Youth unemployment remains staggering. According to the ‘State of the Nigerian Youth Report 2025,’ over 80 million youths are unemployed, with youth unemployment at 53 per cent. Unsurprisingly, this has deepened poverty and worsened insecurity. About 75.5 per cent of rural-based Nigerians now live in poverty. The World Bank’s April 2025 Poverty and Equity Brief confirms that Nigerians residing in rural areas bear the brunt of inflation, stagnation, and structural failure the most. If this is not an indictment of the APC, which has governed the nation for the last ten years, then nothing is.

This is part of the scorecard of an administration that Shettima claims only “fools and impostors” would dare to challenge in 2027.

VP Shettima’s confidence stems from the APC’s deliberate effort to turn Nigeria into a one-party state, or at least a country with one dominant party and a retinue of weak political parties. The APC has effectively emasculated both the PDP and the Labour Party. At last count, no fewer than six PDP governors from Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Taraba, Plateau, and Enugu, have defected to the APC. Most Nigerians believe that these governors were either persuaded or coerced into joining the ruling party. Is this why Shettima thinks challenging Tinubu is a foolish move?

And what should we expect when even the National Assembly, constitutionally empowered to scrutinise the executive, is proudly singing ‘on your mandate we shall stand’?

The lived experience of Nigerians confirms the saying that the more things change, the more they stay the same. After years of criticising government policies from the opposition, Tinubu and his allies are now implementing the very measures they once condemned. Indeed, in Nigeria, things remain the same!

A friend recently shared campaign flyers from former President Shehu Shagari’s 1983 campaign. Shagari promised electricity for every town and village, housing for the masses, industrial transformation, free quality education, food security, and adequate healthcare. More than forty years later, those promises remain painfully relevant.

Nigeria still has 18 million out-of-school children, despite the implementation of the Universal Basic Education Act. The housing deficit exceeds 17 million units, with about 15 million of existing houses said to be structurally defective. Decades after the promise for sustainable food security, hundreds of children in Katsina, Jigawa, Zamfara, Borno and Yobe states still suffer from severe acute malnutrition. Recently, Nigeria accepted wheat donation from war-ravaged Ukraine.

The reality remains persistent. The administration’s harsh policies, together with the increasing influence of alternative platforms like the African Democratic Congress (ADC), tell a different story.

Committed and patriotic Nigerians will contest the 2027 presidential election. They will challenge the APC and may well defeat it if elections are free and fair, as promised by INEC Chairman Professor Joash Amupitan. It is misleading to describe such a challenge as suicidal.