By Rayyanu Bala

My elder brother, Yusuf Shehu, in his usual thought-provoking analysis of issues of topical importance, this week bared his mind on the dynamics surrounding the governorship election in Nasarawa State. He titled his write-up The Intrigues and Dilemma of Governorship Aspirants.
No sooner had I finished digesting his piece than I came across another opinion expressing almost the same line of thought. This opinion was expressed by Alhaji Garba Kore Dawakin Kudu.
In an interview with journalists in Kano, Alhaji Dawakin Kudu stated unequivocally that anyone aiming to become Nigerian President in 2027 must wait for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to complete his remaining four years in office. He further asserted that in every state, no governorship candidate would scale through the APC primaries without Tinubu’s consent and approval.
The extent of Alhaji Dawakin Kudu’s closeness to President Tinubu is unclear, but the tone of his statement underscores the President’s authority. The weight behind his words almost comes across as a direct warning.
What Dawakin Kudu said, and the opinion expressed by my elder brother Yusuf Shehu, were short, sharp, and heavily loaded with meaning.
Yusuf Shehu, in his submission, averred that regardless of what all the governorship aspirants in Nasarawa State are doing, the final decision concerning their fate will come from above. He explained that critical stakeholders at the state level depend on higher stakeholders at the national level for their individual political survival and will always prioritize their own interests rather than sacrifice them for others.
Invariably, Yusuf Shehu is insinuating that the decision on who will fly the APC flag in Nasarawa State will ultimately come from higher authorities.
Yes, we all know that Tinubu’s influence on Nigeria’s political landscape across the length and breadth of the country did not appear overnight. He is a master strategist, a long-standing power broker, and the President of the Federal Republic. He built loyalty, networks, and clout over decades. So yes, his approval matters in political decisions across Nigeria today. President Tinubu does not want to leave anything to chance; he wants to take full control of the APC at both national and state levels ahead of the 2027 elections.
The decision of President Tinubu to stamp his authority on who flies the APC flag in governorship elections across the country, as disclosed by Dawakin Kudu and insinuated by my elder brother, is not a new phenomenon, especially within ruling parties. We have seen this drama play out repeatedly. Aspirants flood the field with confidence, money, billboards, and loud supporters, all convinced that the backing of one powerful big man from their state is enough to carry them to Government House.
Yet history keeps teaching us a stubborn lesson: governorship elections are not driven by noise, emotion, or raw ambition. They are driven by structure, strategy, and cold political reality.
The truth many aspirants do not want to hear is that the emergence of a governorship candidate is rarely accidental. It is not a beauty contest, nor is it a reward for who wants it most. It is a carefully negotiated outcome shaped by party survival instincts and the interests of critical stakeholders whose own political lives are on the line.
Many aspirants miscalculate this reality. They assume loyalty flows downward, that once they secure the backing of a powerful figure, the road is clear. What they forget is that in party politics, loyalty flows upward, not downward. The same big men they rely on at the state level depend heavily on higher authorities at the national level. When directives come from above, personal promises quickly give way to personal survival.
Once the party’s top national stakeholders, under the command and control of the President, close ranks, individual ambitions at the state level become expendable. At that point, the aspirant often discovers, too late, that the pillars he trusted are sitting at the same table with his rivals, forming a consensus under party leadership authority. When this happens, the moment is usually devastating. Reality sets in. The spine breaks.
It is precisely at this juncture that aspirants come to understand that politics has many fair-weather friends. When power slips away, they scatter like flies, relocating to where relevance still exists. The aspirant is left alone to reflect on decisions made in anger, pride, or desperation.
However, ruling parties have a clever way of maintaining a firm grip on their members. It is not always through intimidation, but through hope. Hope of compensation, relevance, appointments, or future opportunities. On this score, even those who lose out at the primaries or in internal negotiations understand one thing: staying within the ruling structure keeps doors open.
For most aspirants, the real ambition is not just the ticket; it is relevance, influence, and return on political investment. Remaining in the ruling party, even after disappointment, preserves all three. Walking away risks losing everything at once.
This is not to say ambition is wrong. Ambition drives politics. But ambition without strategic patience is self-destructive. Governorship is not won by force of will alone; it is won by understanding timing, power dynamics, and when to advance or retreat.
The aspirant who survives politics is not always the loudest or the boldest. He is the one who understands that today’s setback within the ruling party may be tomorrow’s unexpected reward. In Nigerian politics, staying in the room even when decisions go against you is often more powerful than storming out.
In the end, politics is not about who wants it most; it is about who understands the game best. In the case of Nasarawa State, therefore, which of the many aspirants will enjoy the consensus of elites under the command and control of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu? Your guess is as good as mine.