By Rayyanu Bala

After exhaustive deliberations at the Nasarawa Governor’s Lodge in Abuja yesterday, APC stakeholders unanimously adopted direct primaries as against consensus.
The conversation around the mode of primary election in Nasarawa State has taken a decisive turn, and for anyone paying close attention, the outcome is becoming increasingly predictable. With the adoption of the direct primary system by the (APC), many aspirants across the state may still be hopeful but the political reality suggests otherwise. The path has effectively been narrowed, and it leads straight to Nasarawa West.
Politics in Nigeria, like in many places, is not just about ambition, it is about structure, agreements, and timing. In this case, the zoning of governorship to Nasarawa West has already solved 70 percent of the problem. The party leadership, alongside the state governor, have reached a clear understanding: the ticket is zoned to Nasarawa West. That decision alone reshapes the entire contest.
Now, when you combine zoning with a direct primary, the implications become even clearer. Direct primaries involve a broad base of party members, not just a handful of delegates. That might sound like an open playing field, but in reality, it amplifies existing political alignments. Party members across the state are not operating in a vacuum, they are aware of the zoning arrangement, and many see it as a matter of fairness, balance, and political continuity.
This is where aspirants outside Nasarawa West face a hard truth. No matter the resources they bring to the table, they are contesting against not just individuals, but a collective agreement. And agreements like this, especially when backed by party leadership, are not easily overturned.
There’s also a deeper sentiment at play among the grassroots. The idea that “people are not for sale” is another factor; it reflects a growing political consciousness. Party members understand the stakes. They know that respecting zoning today strengthens trust within the party tomorrow. Trying to override that with money or influence risks backlash rather than support.
In a delegate system, perhaps a well-funded aspirant could attempt to negotiate, persuade, or strategically align with a smaller group of decision-makers. But in a direct primary, that path becomes far more difficult. You are now dealing with a wider, more politically aware base that is less likely to be swayed away from a collectively endorsed direction.
So, what does this mean in practical terms? It means that aspirants from outside Nasarawa West are, in many ways, running against the tide. The combination of zoning, leadership backing, and grassroots sentiment forms a strong political barrier. A barrier that money alone cannot break.
This is not to say that politics is ever completely predictable. Surprises do happen. But if current signals are anything to go by, the APC primary is less of an open race and more of a structured process heading toward a predetermined zone.
In the end, the message is simple: when a party agrees on zoning and aligns its machinery behind it, the outcome is predictable. For aspirants outside Nasarawa West, the challenge is not just about winning votes, it is about overcoming a system that has already chosen its direction.
And now since a direction has been chosen, no matter how we look at it, overcoming the system is practically impossible.