By Dr. Idris Jibrin

That the upcoming 2019 general elections may turn out to be the most exciting and game changing political dynamics for Nigeria is becoming clearer by the day. This is not only on account of the desperation and shenanigans of the inchoate coalition in and around the PDP to challenge and unhorse PMB from the Aso Rock Villa. The unfolding dramatic political scenario is also fired up by the determination and unflinching support of the generality of the Nigerian electorates to ensure the return of PMB in 2019 to continue his unfinished business of repositioning and taking Nigeria to greater heights.
With daunting challenges thrown in the path of his Presidency right from the on set to date, such as the renewed militant attacks on oil facilities and infrastructure in the Niger Delta, Saraki’s unconscionable emergence as Senate President against APC’S arrangement and plans as well as the continued hostility and anti-PMB stance of the National Assembly leadership, the herdsmen vs farmers clashes mostly in the North Central states plus spate of banditry, kidnappings and Boko Haram insurgency not yielding the desired political result, the forces ranged against PMB had no choice but to resort to the last card available to them. Which is the well thought out and choreographed gale of defections of high profile members of APC to especially the PDP. All in the attempt to destabilize, desecrate and destroy the APC and thereby deny PMB a solid platform for his reelection bid.
In taking this last course of action before the upcoming elections so as to checkmate and truncate PMB’S ambition, these anti-PMB forces would seem to be clearly guided by their rather successful 2014 experience, when such a move was a contributory game changer that led to the defeat of PDP in the 2015 general elections. At the same time, just like in 2014, but more poignantly now, the defectors are also this time around buoyed by both open and thinly veiled support of powerful elements across both political and ethno religious divide like Obasanjo, Sheikh Ahmad Gumi, Pastors Oyedepo and Sulaiman, as well as all the other predatory forces that have held the country hostage over time, and who are clearly scared stiff of PMB’S return to the Presidency in 2019.
However, what these forces ranged against PMB’S 2019 reelection have failed to reckon with is that 2018 is not 2014 and that the circumstances of the two periods are quite dissimilar. Again, and more importantly, they have refused to recognize the singular phenomenon behind the success of 2015, who happens to be the casus belli of political tsunami of 2015 and, indeed, the raison d’être of the PDP’S continued slide into abyss. Take it or leave it, hate him or like him, Buhari not only made 2015 possible, he is also the man to beat in 2019.
It should be recalled that prior to 2015, Buhari was the single political force that gave PDP a monumental run for their money in both political and electoral contest and judicial confrontations. The titanic contestation culminated in what one may christen Season One of Buhari’s Political Tsunami, an event that dethroned PDP from the power house of Nigeria’s political landscape, in the process setting an unprecedented record of being the first opposition candidate to defeat a ruling party and its candidate in a presidential election anywhere in Africa. To be fair, the defectors from PDP in 2014 played their part in the emergence of PMB, but their involvement was out of necessity because they were faced with political extinction in both PDP and beyond and they had no choice but to join the then newly formed and victory bound APC. In any case, it should be obvious now with the benefit of hindsight, that most of these gladiators only joined the unstoppable APC then in 2014 with the intention of leveraging on the political prowess and marketability of candidate Buhari to regain their wounded and decapitated political mojo and gain power with a view to eventually ditching the man and his brand of politics that is anchored on personal integrity and committed selfless service drive.
Unfortunately for these now itinerant defectors, their failure to distinguish between candidate Buhari (who people used to leverage on his selling points to win elections and later ditch) and the unshakable President Buhari has proved to be their major undoing since 2015. Hence, unlike in 2014 when the imminence of political extinction compelled them to decamp from PDP and join forces with Buhari’s APC, their defection back to PDP in 2018 from APC is as a result of their failure to decapitate, damage and ditch the Buhari brand towards the realization of their higher ambitions and restoration of the pre-2015 politics of brigandage and primiprimitive accumulation.
Indeed, it is needless to say that Buhari’s level has changed since 2015 and that Nigeria itself has moved on politically. It will, therefore, never be business as usual. For this reason, what the recent spate of defections across parties in the nation’s political firmament has done is nothing other than to trigger the Season Two of Buhari’s Political Tsunami which is already underway as we fast approach 2019 elections. What are the indicators or signposts of this impending tsunami against the opponents, wailers and haters of PMB, if one may ask?
The first major indicator is that most of the defectors from APC hail from where Rotimi Amaechi has rightly observed as the comfort zone of PMB in terms of electoral contest and reaping of political fortunes. Since it is commonly agreed that all politics is local, we need to dig further and substantiate our assertions in this discourse. Starting with Sokoto state, it is now incontestable that the grand, triumphant and earthshaking home visit over the weekend by ‘Alu the great’, Senator Aliyu Magatakarda Wammako, has settled the matter of who really politically owns Sokoto between PMB and the anti-PMB forces. There can be only one straight winner there in 2019 and is none than the indefatigable PMB. When we move to Kano state, with Senator Kwankwaso’s latest assertion that he never left APC anyway and that he only has unresolved issues with Governor Ganduje, there is really nothing more to say. End of discussion there!
What about Kwara state, the hitherto seemingly impregnable fortress of Senator Bukola Saraki? Well, a combination of internal rebellion, criss crossing of party affiliation by opposing political gladiators and the ascendancy of the inimitable Laid Mohammed as the new leader of APC in the state, promises an imminent and sudden eclipse of a thriving politician who, for all intent and purposes, may have bungled his inordinate ambition to be President of Nigeria in the foreseeable future. The next point of call is Bauchi state. Here too like Kano and as aptly and succinctly articulated by Amaechi, even if PMB is taken there in a sick bed, his victory is assured any day. As a matter of fact, if PMB’S political trajectory in Nigeria is any guide, it will not be out of place to further say that Buhari’s support base in both Bauchi and Kano is even more solid than in his home state, Katsina.
Besides, the spate of defections is not only one way, as in from APC to the other parties, notably PDP and ADC. There has also been defection of members of the PDP and other lesser parties to APC in all the geopolitical zones of the country. Of huge significance in this regard is the recent inroads by PMB in terms of fast paced widening of his acceptance and support base in places that were hitherto considered as ‘no go’ areas like the South East and the South South zones. Did I hear someone mention Senator Akpabio, the immediate past Senate Minority Leader, as the impending nemesis of the PDP and other anti-PMB forces in the South South geopolitical zone?
No doubt a formidable player for the big occasion, the prospects of an Akpabio and many other stalwarts like him lining up behind PMB is a definite reflection of the unfolding changing dynamics and realignment of political forces as we approach 2019 that the initiators, masterminds and executors of the recent political defections may eventually leave to regret it, because instead of his dislodgement, their actions promises to facilitate the return of PMB to the Aso Rock Villa. Indeed, the exciting times have just begun in earnest as the Season Two of Buhari’s Political Tsunami gets underway.