Muazu Elazeh

Less than a year before the presidential election, the opposition coalition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), shows all signs of failure. The party has done nothing to suggest it is a serious contender in the fast-approaching 2027 presidential race. And that is sad because Nigerians, disillusioned with the ruling All Progressives Congress and hoping the ADC would offer an alternative, are left heartbroken like someone jilted by the love of their life.

In the lead-up to the 2015 presidential election, it was obvious to everyone except the former President Goodluck Jonathan cabal, who still laboured under a delusion, that the opposition would deliver a major surprise. The way the APC conducted its activities, applied pressure on the ruling PDP, and actively mobilised the Nigerian public clearly showed that the APC train was unstoppable.

Back then, as it is now, Nigerians were disillusioned with the ruling party. Killings are widespread, and the government seems either helpless, overwhelmed, or unwilling to address them. There are concerns about the management of the nation’s economy. These factors, driven by the hardships faced by citizens, made it easier for them to listen to the then-opposition APC.

The nation faces a similar situation, with current conditions seemingly even more critical than during the pre-APC era. Nigerians are questioning why it is so difficult for the ADC to galvanise support and encourage citizens to vote out the APC. Can the ADC be relied upon to assertively mobilise Nigerians?

While in the build-up to the 2015 polls, some governors and members of the ruling PDP defected to the APC, one year before the 2027 polls, the APC is daily welcoming defectors, including opposition governors. ADC has not been able to attract any elected officeholders other than Senators Ireti Kingibe and Enyinaya Abaribe. Correct me if I am wrong.

Since its formal unveiling in July 2025, the ADC has failed to persuade any governor to adopt its principles to the point of joining it. The most naive argument I have heard recently is that having many governors does not guarantee electoral victory. While it may be true that Peter Obi won in 11 states, including Lagos, Nasarawa, Benue, and Plateau, even though his Labour Party had no governor, it is also true that governors are a significant factor.

The ADC has failed to show Nigerians that it represents a genuine alternative. Nor has it provided the kind of opposition that the APC offered to the then-ruling PDP, especially under former President Jonathan. You take ADC seriously at your own risk.

Instead of focusing on building a credible platform strong enough to compete with the ruling APC, the elements that united to form ADC seem fixated on one thing: securing the party’s presidential ticket. For a party that is not only practically aimless but effectively drifting without a clear ideology, it is amusing that its main concern appears to be which bloc members belong to. It is either you belong to the Amaechi bloc, the Peter Obi bloc, or the Atiku Abubakar bloc, all determined to clinch the presidential ticket.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Rotimi Amaechi were part of the elements that formed the ruling APC when their n-PDP arm merged with ACN and CPC. They have a front-row account of all that transpired and how the APC was able to sweep PDP out of power. Sadly, there is nothing to suggest that they are making any good use of the lessons learnt.

While the ADC remains uncertain in the dark, some stakeholders, as if under a spell, have begun sowing more discord. Recently, a few party stakeholders met in Benin, and shortly afterwards, the South-South zonal chapter expressed differing views on whether or not Rotimi Amaechi had been endorsed as the party’s presidential candidate.

John Odigie-Oyegun stated that the region endorsed Rotimi Amaechi for the party’s 2027 presidential ticket, only for some members to deny it. A party merely struggling to find its feet shouldn’t be embroiled in such controversy. It is too early in the day. But that is ADC.

Nothing shows how unserious the ADC is more than its rejection of the 2026 Electoral Act. The party described the Act as a booby trap set by the ruling APC for the opposition. It insisted that the new election schedule and requirements under the Electoral Act 2026 could make it “almost impossible” for opposition parties to field candidates, arguing that the Act imposes strict compliance conditions on political parties. Really?

Fundamental questions arise from the ADC’s rejection. Was the ADC unaware of the clauses it is now criticising before the bill became law? Where was the party during the amendments to this law in the national assembly? Should the party not have raised any objections and concerns about the law much earlier?

When the APC aimed to seize power from the PDP, it was a calculated move. There was no dispute over who would secure the party’s ticket. Although other members competed for the ticket, it was clear that the entire party machinery was aligned with the late former President Muhammadu Buhari. This principled stance eased tensions.

Curiously, the elements that formed the ADC, which many believed would help Nigeria replicate 2015 in 2027, have, instead of building a solid platform, been preoccupied, too early in the day, with the talk of who gets the party’s presidential ticket.

After a decade of APC governance, Nigerians now realise that the country has descended into what citizens call a one-chance. Citizens are still struggling with the cost-of-living crisis. Infrastructure remains neglected. Hospitals still lack sufficient equipment and staff. Power supply is unreliable. Insecurity has never been this severe.

Statistics from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) showed that in 2025 alone, 11,968 Nigerians lost their lives due to conflict-related deaths. From 1 January to 13 February 2026, approximately 1,380 Nigerians were killed.

Clearly, under a government that performs so poorly, the nation needs change. But where will that change come from? Can the ADC deliver it to Nigerians? While other smaller political parties lack the means, the ADC, which many believe offers hope, is navigating a sea of pessimism. Unless something changes, and very drastically too, Nigeria may be stuck with the ruling APC beyond 2027.

—-Elazeh is the GMD of LEADERSHIP and can be reached on: 08022029766