By Rayyanu Bala

Mohammed Abubakar Adamu’s decision to dump the APC for the SDP may look dramatic on the surface, but politically, it appears more like a journey toward an avoidable dead end. The former Inspector General of Police perhaps calculated that his recent movements and public engagements would automatically translate into political momentum, but politics in Nigeria — particularly in Nasarawa State — is far more complex than staged excitement and ceremonial crowds.
Yes, leaving the APC at this critical moment is an ill-advised gamble.
Some of his supporters are already celebrating the distribution of bags of rice across communities as proof of growing popularity. But let us be honest with ourselves: sharing rice and other palliatives is not the same as building a political structure. Temporary excitement should not be mistaken for genuine grassroots acceptance. What many are calling “momentum” is largely a political hoax — inflated by wishful thinking rather than electoral reality.
Indeed, what we should keep in mind is that 2027 is not 2011.
This is the most important political truth former IGP’s supporters are deliberately ignoring. The circumstances that brought Senator Tanko Al-Makura to power in 2011 were extraordinary and cannot simply be recreated today. Back then, the political environment was fragmented, and above all, the powerful Buhari tsunami that swept across northern Nigeria lifted many opposition candidates to victory. Today, that wave no longer exists.
The political atmosphere in Nasarawa State has changed significantly. The emotional connection and mass movement that powered the CPC during those years are absent today. There is no statewide sentiment for change in Nasarawa State at the moment.
The SDP of today stands on a completely different political foundation from the CPC of 2011, and pretending otherwise is simply deceiving oneself.
Politics is not won through nostalgia or deception. It is won through structure, strategy, alliances, and timing. Unfortunately, Abubakar Adamu’s move to the SDP relies heavily on the mistaken belief that history will repeat itself. But history only repeats itself when conditions remain the same — and clearly, the conditions today are not the same as they were in 2011.
Even within Nasarawa State, the APC remains deeply rooted, with established structures across wards and local governments. Walking away from such a platform based on overestimated personal popularity could end up becoming a costly political miscalculation. I also believe that Senator Tanko Al-Makura will not follow him to the SDP.
Nobody doubts Mohammed Adamu’s public service record or his national exposure. However, politics is different from administrative service. Respect does not always translate into votes, and media attention does not necessarily produce electoral success.
Those encouraging Abubakar Adamu to believe otherwise may simply be leading him into political isolation.
By every standard, his defection to the SDP is not a masterstroke, but rather the beginning of a catastrophic political
Disaster.