By Dr. Sulaiman Abdulwahab Sulaiman

Following his defeat at the APC governorship primaries, former Inspector General of Police, Mohammed Abubakar Adamu, appears to have chosen the path of political defection in pursuit of his ambition through another platform.

In my article of 30th October 2025 titled “Putting the Context in Perspective: Understanding the Continuity of Zoning in Nasarawa State,” published by Nasarawaeye.com, I concluded by stating that aspirants who fail to secure victory at party primaries usually have three options before them:
• Remain in the APC and wait for a better political opportunity;
• Remain in the APC while risking anti-party activities and possible sanctions; or
• Defect to another political party and face the real meaning of opposition.

Former IGP Adamu, has clearly chosen the third option. During a meeting with officials of Makama Ward, his political ward, the former IGP formally tendered his letter of resignation from the APC. In his remarks, he emphasized that the decision “was not taken lightly” and further declared his intention to pursue his “political aspirations through another platform.”

The essence of this write-up, therefore, is to critically examine whether moving to another political party at this stage can truly make a positive political difference for the former police chief.

THE AL-MAKURA COMPARISON AND PRESENT POLITICAL REALITY
For the sake of argument, some political observers may attempt to draw parallels between the current political situation and the events of 2011, when Senator, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, under the platform of the CPC, defeated an incumbent governor in Nasarawa State. Indeed, that political upset remains a significant moment in the political history of the state. However, political realities are never static and no two political circumstances produce exactly the same outcome.

The factors and conditions that gave rise to the CPC victory in 2011 are fundamentally different from the prevailing realities of today. Political environments evolve over time; alliances change, voter sentiments shift and party structures either strengthen or weaken depending on the prevailing circumstances. As such, expecting history to repeat itself in the exact same manner may amount to a serious political miscalculation.

It is widely alleged that IGP Adamu enjoys the political backing and mentorship of Senator Al-Makura. If that assumption holds true, then the former IGP may still require the goodwill and strategic support of the former governor in several respects. However, an important question remains: does Senator Al-Makura still possess the political influence and structure capable of significantly shaping the political movement of IGP Adamu in the present circumstances?

The just-concluded APC primaries provide an immediate point of reference in assessing that question. Even within the framework of political mentorship and alliance, there are practical limits to the level of support Senator Al-Makura can extend to IGP Adamu, particularly if such political ambitions are to be pursued through another political party. Any attempt to exceed those limits could potentially create broader political consequences for Senator Al-Makura himself.

THE LEGAL CHALLENGE SURROUNDING DEFECTION
Another major impediment confronting IGP Adamu’s move to another political party is the ongoing legal controversy surrounding the Electoral Act 2027.

A provision of the Act reportedly seeks to prevent aspirants who have already participated in the primary process of one political party from defecting to another party to contest the same election cycle. Justice Muhammed Umar of the Federal High Court in Abuja had, on May 20, 2026, delivered judgment in favour of the plaintiff (the Youth Party) against the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), thereby creating significant legal uncertainty around the issue.

Interestingly, INEC has now appealed the judgment, asking the appellate court to:
• Set aside the judgment of the lower court;
• Grant a stay of execution; and
• Strike out the suit on the grounds that the respondent lacks the locus standi to institute the action.

This development poses a serious political and legal challenge to IGP Adamu. Should the appellate court grant the first two reliefs sought by INEC, it would effectively prevent him from moving to another political party pending the final determination of the matter.

Even more importantly, whether the Court of Appeal rules in favour of the respondent or the appellant, the matter is likely to proceed to the Supreme Court for final determination. The critical question then becomes: how long can the former IGP wait for the judicial process to run its full course?

Political timelines are unforgiving. By the time the appellate and Supreme Court processes are concluded, party primaries across political parties may already have been conducted and concluded. In such a scenario, his ambition could face severe procedural setbacks.

More devastating would be a final judgment in favour of INEC. Such a verdict could render his decision to pursue his political aspirations through another platform entirely futile.

THE CHALLENGE OF LEAVING THE APC AFTER LOSING THE PRIMARIES
Beyond the legal and political implications surrounding defection, the decision by Mohammed Adamu to leave the APC after losing the party primaries raises serious political questions about strategy, timing and long-term relevance.

The reality remains that the APC primary election has already produced its candidate through an internal democratic process. Rather than consolidating support within the party after the outcome, the former IGP now appears set to abandon the same political platform under which he sought political legitimacy.

The APC remains the dominant political structure in Nasarawa State, with strong grassroots networks, experienced campaign machinery and established political influence across the state. Leaving such a structure after losing a primary election may significantly weaken the former IGP’s political standing, especially among party faithful who believe in party discipline and internal cohesion.

Furthermore, politics in Nasarawa State is largely structure-driven rather than personality-driven. Electoral victories are not secured merely through public recognition or individual ambition, but through coordinated political structures extending from the ward level to the state level. Building such an alternative structure outside the APC within a limited political timeframe may prove extremely difficult.

Another major challenge is that contesting under another platform would mean directly confronting the APC’s formidable political machinery while simultaneously competing with several opposition parties for the same pool of voters. In many cases, fragmented opposition politics only strengthens the dominant ruling party.

For many observers, the decision to leave the APC immediately after losing the primaries may appear less like a strategic political movement and more like a reaction to electoral disappointment within the party. Such perceptions could affect public sympathy and weaken attempts to present the defection as a broader ideological or political cause.

CONCLUSION
Without doubt, every politician has the constitutional right to associate with any political party of choice. However, successful politics requires patience, long-term relationship building and the ability to manage both victory and defeat within established democratic structures.

While supporters of the former IGP may defend his decision as politically necessary, the realities on the ground suggest that leaving the APC after losing the primaries could expose him to significant political disadvantages. The dominance of the APC in Nasarawa State, combined with the absence of a tested alternative political structure around him, may ultimately limit the viability of his political ambitions outside the party.

Political history has repeatedly demonstrated that defection, particularly after losing party primaries, does not automatically translate into electoral success. In many instances, politicians who abandon dominant political platforms in reaction to primary defeats often discover that politics outside established party structures is far more difficult than anticipated.

One thing, however, remains certain: moving to another political platform is not always synonymous with political victory.

Congratulations to Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada and the APC family

Dr. Sulaiman Abdulwahab Sulaiman, CNA
FACSA (USA), FCIFCN, FCIM, FICAN, FICEN
Former Executive Secretary, Nasarawa State Scholarship Board
26th May, 2026