By Rayyanu Bala

The APC family woke up this Monday morning to the expected news of the defection of Hon. Mohammed Danazumi from the APC to the SDP.
Why do I describe the news as expected? Since Danazumi was dropped as Chairman of the Nasarawa State Universal Basic Education Board (NSUBEB), his enthusiasm for the APC and the administration of Engr. Abdullahi Sule has dropped to its lowest ebb. Hardly does one see him at APC functions anymore.
Moreover, anyone who has been following the relationship between Danazumi and Senator Tanko Al-Makura would know that Danazumi has merely been buying time and would eventually follow Al-Makura’s political path, just like the former Minister of Environment, Barrister Mohammed Abdullahi.
Danazumi and Barrister Abdullahi both served under Al-Makura as Chief of Staff and Secretary to the State Government, respectively. Therefore, it would be difficult to separate Al-Makura from these political associates, or them from Al-Makura.
Indeed, as I observed in my article published about four days ago in Nasarawa Eye newspaper, titled “Nasarawa 2027: Of Refugee Camp and Aggrieved Politicians,” the defection of some politicians to the SDP is designed to send a signal that the APC is collapsing in Nasarawa State.
In that article, I stressed that if we take stock of those who have defected to the SDP, we will discover that many of them are aggrieved politicians. Their defections have been driven less by principle than by frustration. Many were dropped from their respective positions, while others failed to realise their ambitions of securing APC tickets in the party’s primary elections.
Therefore, the defection of a few lightweight politicians to the SDP is not, by itself, a demonstration of political strength. Cross-carpeting is a normal occurrence in partisan politics, but celebrating the defection of a few individuals as an earth-shaking development could be interpreted as a sign of desperation.
But before we go any further, let us pause and ask some fundamental questions:
Among those who have defected, who can actually deliver his or her polling unit, ward, or local government area? Who has a verifiable grassroots structure? Who has consistently demonstrated the ability to mobilise voters? Who has built a political base that extends beyond his or her immediate family?
It is worth noting that many of those who have now defected to the SDP were associated with Al-Makura. Yet Al-Makura himself was unsuccessful in his bid to secure a second term in the Senate.
So, what does the defection of these aggrieved politicians mean for the APC?
For the APC, the defections may amount to nothing. More importantly, their defections raise another question: What holds such an aggrieved coalition together beyond their shared grievances?
Their convergence could, at best, be described as a “refugee camp for aggrieved politicians.”
The foundation of a coalition built around the former IGP, from this perspective, is little more than anger and dissatisfaction with the APC. But any political movement built mainly around opposition to another party must eventually answer a basic question: What positive vision is holding the coalition together?
This is why I noted in my earlier article that the 2027 election will ultimately test all the claims being made today.
While we await more defections of Al-Makura’s political associates from the APC, one thing should be understood: a coalition of aggrieved politicians has never, by itself, guaranteed electoral success.
Shared grievances can bring politicians together, but grievances alone cannot build a durable political movement, particularly when those grievances are rooted in the failure to secure party tickets or achieve political ambitions within a party.
So, rather than simply counting defectors, perhaps the more important question is:
How many votes can they actually deliver?
Politics is not about headlines created by defections. It is about what is happening on the ground.
And this is where the APC, Governor Abdullahi Sule, and Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada must come into reckoning.
While the opposition camp in the SDP is concentrating its attention on lobbying people from the APC to defect to the SDP, Senator Wadada and the APC have continued to receive endorsements and expressions of support from groups and communities across Nasarawa State.
The events of Saturday in Doma provide an interesting example.
Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada had to apologise to some groups because he could not personally attend their endorsement events, simply because there were more engagements than he could accommodate within the available time.
At a ceremony organised by retired Comptroller Joseph Attah in Doma, the senator received endorsements from more than seven groups. He also commissioned two APC offices in Doma before proceeding to Lafia for other engagements.
In Lafia, he attended endorsement activities involving members of the Igbo community in Nasarawa State, the Idoma community, and groups of women at the City Hall.
Interestingly, some groups whose programmes he could not attend that same day included the Timber Association and the Barbers and Hair Salon Association in Nasarawa State. Their engagements, according to the account, had to be moved to another date because of Wadada’s packed schedule.
The events of Saturday in Doma, Lafia, and other parts of Nasarawa State raise an important question:
If the political atmosphere is truly as hostile to the APC as the opposition is saying or suggesting, how should these continuing endorsements and community engagements around the APC be understood?
All these activities demonstrate that the APC remains firmly on the ground in the state and that Senator Wadada’s candidacy is receiving support from different groups and communities across Nasarawa State.
A few defections by individuals who do not have absolute control over their wards or local government areas cannot, by themselves, determine the outcome of an election. The APC remains active across the state.
Politics is about sustained engagement with ordinary people, communities, associations, and voters.
So, while some are busy trying to create the impression that the people are tired of the APC, the APC and Senator Wadada are busy meeting people, listening to them, and receiving their support.
The coming months will show how the narratives around the APC and Senator Wadada will translate into actual votes.
For now, however, the political conversations should continue.
Ultimately, time and the ballot box will tell.