By Rayyanu Bala

Former IGP Mohammed Abubakar Adamu, who joined politics less than ten months ago, is already boasting that he can defeat a sitting governor alongside Senator Wadada. Both of these leaders have spent over two decades in politics, experiencing its highs and lows and mastering its complexities. For someone who has not even spent a full year in the game to claim he can bring them down in an election seems overly ambitious and more of a tall, unrealistic dream than a practical possibility.
Of course, election season can bring out optimism and, at times, a fair bit of overconfidence. Former IGP Adamu’s remarks fall right into this mix of optimism and overconfidence. His confidence that he can defeat not just the incumbent, Abdullahi Sule, but also his preferred aspirant, senator Wadada is but a bold claim. One wonders whether former IGP Adamu has something up his sleeve that he believes Governor Sule and Wadada do not have.
We are all aware that nobody can win elections through press statements or through the rules echo chambers of loyal supporters. Elections are won on the ground, through structure, performance, and credibility. The question now is: does former IGP Adamu have more structure and credibility than Governor Sule and Senator Wadada?
From the tone of his supporters, there seems to be a belief that distributing palliatives harmful individuals and maintaining a presence among select individuals constitutes structure and translates into widespread popularity. This is a poor assumption. Political goodwill built on selective outreach only creates an illusion of strength rather than the real thing. The average voter is far more perceptive than many politicians give them credit for.
Yes, some people are invoking the history of the defeat of Aliyu Akwe Doma in 2011 by former governor Tanko Al-Makura. However, we must keep in mind that the context and circumstances surrounding that defeat were different. At that time, there was widespread dissatisfaction: strikes had crippled schools, hospitals were shut, and public frustration was at its peak. These factors created a wave that Tanko Al-Makura was able to ride to victory.

Besides these factors, there was also the Buhari tsunami, which of course contributed to the defeat of Aliyu Akwe Doma. The CPC’s victory in Nasarawa State in 2011 was a result of these factors, contrary to what has been widely insinuated.
Fast forward to today, and the situation is different. The current government under Sule has not generated the same level of statewide discontent. In fact, there is visible development and a governance style that resonates with the good people of Nasarawa State. Whether one agrees or not, the absence of widespread disillusionment under Sule’s administration changes the equation.
So when someone steps forward with the confidence of unseating an incumbent in such a context, it is fair to ask: what exactly is the strategy? Beyond optimism, what is the structure? Beyond pockets of palliatives, where is the broad-based support beyond a handful of individuals?
Agreed, ambition is vital in a democracy, but it must be grounded in reality. Surrounding oneself with voices that constantly affirm one’s chances, without critical assessment, can be politically dangerous.
Elections everywhere in the world are not won by assurances whispered in private rooms or by selective generosity. They are decided by the collective judgment of the electorate, as well as the consensus of political elites, which can be equally decisive.
If Adamu Abubakar truly intends to be a serious contender in 2027, then the path forward requires more than confidence. It demands a clear and realistic appraisal of the political landscape and perhaps a willingness to hear not just praise, but hard truths. One therefore must ask whether former IGP Adamu has the wherewithal to withstand a contest with either Abdullahi Sule or Senator Ahmed Wadada Aliyu.
When it comes to financial strength—something his supporters often boast about—the former IGP cannot come near them and talk less of support base.