By Rayyanu Bala

Since the outcome of the APC governorship primary election in Nasarawa State was announced and the subsequent defection of former Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Abubakar Adamu, one phrase has dominated political discussions: “mass defections are rocking the APC.” But a critical question needs to be asked: Are these truly mass defections?
In my view, we should be careful with the language we use in politics. A handful of individuals crossing from one party to another cannot automatically be described as a “mass defection.” By every reasonable definition, a mass defection involves large numbers of people moving together in a way that significantly alters the political landscape.
These defections have neither changed nor will change the political landscape of Nasarawa State, regardless of the efforts made to portray them as significant.
The act of assembling a few individuals, providing them with APC symbols to burn, and presenting the spectacle to the media cannot be regarded as a mass defection.
Indeed, some may ask: if the defections are insignificant, why did the APC in Nasarawa state appear concerned to the extent of writing a letter to INEC, drawing its attention to the political direction of former IGP Adamu?
What the APC did was simply to strengthen democracy in Nasarawa State. Just as the defectors have the right to leave the APC, the party’s leadership also has the right to draw INEC’s attention to what it perceives as an attempt to violate the Electoral Act.
The APC remains the ruling party at both the federal and state levels. Given Nigeria’s political culture, it is natural for politicians and their supporters to gravitate toward the ruling party because they often see it as offering greater political opportunities. Historically, the movement has usually been toward the party in power rather than away from it.
Some observers may point to what happened during the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan, when notable defections weakened the PDP and strengthened the opposition. However, the circumstances that produced those defections were quite different from what we see today.
At that time, the opposition had a unique political asset in the person of Muhammadu Buhari. Buhari commanded enormous loyalty across much of Northern Nigeria and possessed an electoral influence that few politicians in Nigerian have matched. His popularity transformed political calculations and inspired confidence among politicians seeking an alternative platform.
The Buhari factor played a major role in several electoral victories. In Nasarawa State, many political analysts believe it contributed significantly to the election of Tanko Al-Makura in 2011. The same influence was evident in 2015 when the APC successfully ended the PDP’s sixteen-year hold on power at the federal level and recorded victories across many states.
Today, the political environment is different. Buhari is no longer on the ballot, and there is no single political figure with comparable influence over Northern voting patterns. This reality makes comparisons between the current political situation and the events leading up to the 2015 elections somewhat misleading.
However, this is not to suggest that all defections are insignificant. Every defection carries implications for party strength and internal cohesion. In the case of Nasarawa State, however, the situation has been exaggerated by portraying it as a mass exodus, when the evidence on the ground does not support such a characterization.
As we get closer to 2027 general elections,
The true test of these defections will not be in media headlines or individual declarations, but rather in the verdict of voters at the polls. Ultimately, elections not media attention will determine the real strength of any political party.