By Muazu Elazeh

If they have their way, most of our politicians will turn political office into a patrilineal hereditary monarchy. They envision a system in which power is inherited from father to son. They govern and then pass power to their descendants, who in turn govern and hand it over to their own children. That is why many of them are already grooming their children to sustain the legacy of political domination over the masses.

This is the kind of transition currently unfolding in some African countries, where leaders have built political dynasties through coercion and the concentration of power. In Togo, for instance, by the time the current president, Faure Gnassingbe Eyadema, completes his third term, the Eyadema family would have ruled the country for 48 years.

Across Africa, seven countries have had both father and son leading the nation consecutively. Whether in Botswana, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Togo, Mauritius or Malawi, political power has at one point passed from father to son. It should, however, be noted that in some of these cases, the succession occurred years after the father had left office, giving citizens enough time to assess the impact of his leadership and make an informed judgment about the son.

Is Nigeria gradually shifting towards a political culture based on birthright rather than merit? Possibly not entirely. However, there are increasing concerns that family political dynasties are gaining prominence, especially in the lower chambers of the National Assembly and some state houses of assembly.

In Kaduna State, after serving eight years as governor, former Governor Nasir El-Rufai successfully positioned his son for a House of Representatives seat. Bello Mohammed El-Rufai currently represents Kaduna North Federal Constituency and is already seeking re-election.

In Benue State, former Senate President David Mark’s daughter, Blessing Onyeche Onuh, is serving in the House of Representatives as a member representing Otukpo/Ohimini Federal Constituency.

Similarly, in Delta State, Erhiatake Ibori-Suenu, daughter of former Governor James Onanefe Ibori, is the current member representing Ethiope Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives.

However, these examples pale into insignificance when compared to what is currently brewing in Kano State. In all three instances mentioned above, the parents are no longer occupying public office. In Kano, the situation is different. Here, both father and son are positioned to occupy two strategic offices at the national and sub-national levels from the same election cycle.

Unless Kano’s more than six million registered voters use their votes to say a firm no, they could be endorsing political dominance along family line. The National Democratic Congress (NDC) in Kano State, with Kwankwaso as one of its main pillars, has nominated Mustapha Musa Kwankwaso as the running mate to its governorship candidate, Aminu Gwarzo, for the 2027 governorship election.

For emphasis, Mustapha is the son of Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Without intending to demean him, one could argue that his biological connection to the former governor is the main reason he was chosen ahead of many other politicians who appear considerably more qualified.

Now, this is where the matter becomes truly interesting.

The senior Kwankwaso is the running mate to the NDC’s presidential candidate and would become the country’s vice president if the party wins the presidential election. The junior Kwankwaso, a former Commissioner for Youth and Sports in Kano State, would become deputy governor if the NDC wins the governorship election in Kano.

How can one family be so selfish as to corner such strategic positions for itself as though nobody else exists? Is the NDC in Kano not effectively telling the public that it is owned by one family? Are there truly no other qualified individuals within the party’s ranks in Kano State?

There is no denying that former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, founder of the renowned Kwankwasiyya movement in Kano and NDC’s vice-presidential candidate in the 2027 election, remains a political enigma.

I have mixed feelings about Kwankwaso. However, what is undeniable is that across the 19 northern states, no current politician has as much grassroots support as Kwankwaso does in Kano.

Since the Second Republic, when he served as Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kwankwaso has been a prominent figure in Kano politics. Although he lost his re-election bid to Ibrahim Shekarau, he made a significant comeback in 2011, served another four-year term as governor, successfully handed over power to his chosen successor and deputy, Umar Ganduje, and has remained politically influential ever since.

However, the build-up to the 2027 general election is starting to expose what many might come to see as the true character of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. In my view, it could also signal the beginning of the end of his political influence.

Regardless of what the NDC governorship candidate, Abdulsalam Gwarzo, wants Nigerians to believe, it is hard to deny that the decision to pick the younger Kwankwaso as running mate was influenced either directly by the elder Kwankwaso or his proxies.

By encouraging his son to accept the nomination, Kwankwaso has demonstrated what appears to be a troubling disregard for his many supporters’ aspirations and expectations. That decision may ultimately prove costly.

Indeed, I am inclined to believe that the NDC has set itself up for failure in Kano. The choice of Kwankwaso’s son as the running mate is likely to affect the party’s electoral prospects, as many members may either leave the party entirely or remain within it only to work against it at the polls.

It does not require many years of political experience to see the risks involved and to conclude that the party has set itself up for failure. The NDC is already gearing up to face a sitting governor who benefits from incumbency and full backing at the national level. That fact alone should have urged more caution in choosing a running mate.

I reckon many will dismiss the incumbency factor since the current governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf, defeated the ruling party’s candidate. That will be a serious misjudgement because the scenario and the actors are slightly different.

Fundamentally, the biggest beneficiary of this NDC blunder may well be the ruling APC and Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf. They have effectively been handed a ready-made campaign issue. The biggest loser, however, may be Kwankwaso himself. From all indications, he may fail to produce the next governor of Kano State, and once control of the state slips from his grasp, he will lose the political relevance he has spent decades building.

—–Elazeh is the GMD of LEADERSHIP Newspaper. He can be reached via:@babanyesme