By Rayyanu Bala

Frankly speaking, I do not understand why many of the former IGP’s supporters are running with the belief that 2011 will repeat itself in Nasarawa State. Many commentators, including yours sincerely, argued to the contrary. Our argument was based on the fact that every election comes with its own dynamics. The circumstances that made Senator Umaru Tanko Al-Makura win the 2011 election may not present themselves in 2027.
I argued in one of my articles, which appeared in this newspaper on May 25, 2016, titled “2027 Is Not 2011: Why Former IGP Adamu’s SDP Gamble May End in Political Disaster,” that Mohammed Abubakar Adamu’s decision to dump the APC for the SDP might look dramatic on the surface, but politically, it appeared more like a journey towards an avoidable dead end.
In that article, I reasoned that former IGP Mohammed Abubakar Adamu perhaps calculated that his movements and public engagements would automatically translate into political momentum. However, politics in Nigeria, particularly in Nasarawa State, is far more complex than staged excitement and ceremonial crowds.
I then posited that his decision to leave the APC at that critical moment was an ill-advised gamble, even though some of his supporters were celebrating the distribution of bags of rice across communities and other palliatives as proof of his growing popularity. But I drew their attention to the fact that sharing rice and other palliatives is not the same as building a political structure. Temporary excitement should not be mistaken for genuine grassroots acceptance. What they were calling “momentum” was largely a political hoax inflated by wishful thinking rather than electoral reality.
I further argued that they should be reminded that 2027 is not 2011. This is because the circumstances that brought Senator Tanko Al-Makura to power in 2011 were extraordinary and cannot simply be recreated today.
In 2011, the political environment was fragmented, and, above all, the powerful Buhari tsunami that swept across northern Nigeria lifted many opposition candidates to victory. Today, that wave no longer exists. The political atmosphere in Nasarawa State has changed significantly. The emotional connection and mass movement that powered the CPC during those years are largely absent today. There is no statewide sentiment for change in Nasarawa State at the moment.
The SDP of today stands on a completely different political foundation from the CPC of 2011, and for anyone to pretend otherwise is simply to deceive himself. Politics is not won through self-deception. It is won through structure, strategy, alliances, and timing.
Unfortunately, I further argued that Abubakar Adamu’s move to the SDP relied heavily on the mistaken belief that history would repeat itself. But history only repeats itself when conditions remain the same, and clearly, the conditions today are not the same as they were in 2011.
Even within Nasarawa State, the APC remains deeply rooted, with established structures across wards and local governments. Walking away from such a platform based on overestimated personal popularity could end up becoming a costly political miscalculation.
In the same article, I stressed that nobody would doubt Mohammed Adamu’s public service record or his national exposure. However, politics is different from administrative service. I also pointed out that media attention does not necessarily translate into electoral success, adding that those encouraging Abubakar Adamu to believe otherwise might simply be leading him into political isolation.
I concluded that his defection to the SDP was not a masterstroke, but rather the beginning of a catastrophic political disaster.
Whether one agrees with my submission or not, time will surely tell.
Surely, 2027 is not 2011. We can only disagree with this at our own peril.