By Rayyanu Bala

There is nothing more amusing and laughable than the claim by the camp of former IGP Mohammed Abubakar Adamu that the defection of some politicians to the SDP is a signal of the collapse of the APC in Nasarawa State.
To describe the defection of lightweight politicians as a demonstration of political strength is, to say the least, laughable. Cross-carpeting is a normal occurrence in partisan politics, but celebrating the defections of some few as an earth-shaking development is a demonstration of desperation.
But before we go any further, let us pause and ask: among those who have defected, who can actually deliver his or her polling unit, ward, or local government area? Who has a verifiable grassroots structure? Who has consistently demonstrated the ability to mobilise voters? Who has built a political base that extends beyond his or her immediate family?
At the SDP National Convention in Abuja, former IGP Mohammed Abubakar Adamu reportedly said that nobody needs the APC in Nasarawa and that the people are tired of the party. While he is entitled to express his opinion, straight talk in politics requires evidence. You cannot manufacture a narrative that nobody needs the APC and expect people to believe it.
Interestingly, since declaring his governorship ambition and subsequently defecting to the SDP, the former IGP has attracted nothing more than aggrieved politicians like himself. Politicians who are unhappy with the political arrangements they previously belonged to. Many have experienced political disappointments or failed to achieve their ambitions within their former APC.
As I observed earlier, there is nothing unusual about politicians changing alliances. But what does the defection of these aggrieved politicians mean for the APC? Nothing. It only raises an important question: what holds such an aggrieved coalition of politicians together beyond their shared grievances?
Their convergence could, at best, be described as a “refugee camp for aggrieved politicians.”
The foundation of the coalition around the former IGP appears to be nothing but anger. Any political movement built mainly around anger against another party must eventually answer a basic question: what positive vision is holding it together?
Telling voters that they are tired of the APC is not, by itself, a governing agenda.
The people of Nasarawa need to hear about ideas, policies, records, competence, and a clear plan for the state.
The 2027 election will test all the claims being made today. It will show whether those being celebrated around the former IGP can actually deliver their respective polling units. It will show whether their influence exists beyond political gatherings and social media. It will show whether their followers are voters or merely sympathisers.
A coalition of aggrieved politicians has never, by itself, guaranteed electoral success. Shared grievances can bring politicians together, but grievances alone cannot build a durable political movement, particularly when the grievances are rooted in failure to secure party tickets or achieve political ambitions within the APC.
So, rather than counting defectors, perhaps the better question is:
How many votes can they deliver?
That answer will not come from press releases or social-media celebrations.
It will come from the polling units.
And in 2027, the ballot box, not the noise surrounding the defections, will have the final say.