By Rayyanu Bala

For months now, there has been a political drama unfolding in Nasarawa State.
The name of former Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Abubakar Adamu, has deliberately been kept at the centre of the conversation, with his supporters suggesting that the political establishment in Nasarawa is deeply worried about his possible entry into the 2027 governorship race.
The story is simple: They say Sule is afraid. Wadada is afraid. The APC is afraid. Everybody, apparently, is afraid of the former IGP.
But is it true that everyone is afraid of the former IGP?
I am not convinced, and I doubt that anyone is convinced either.
In fact, ex-IGP Adamu’s candidacy does not instil any fear in Governor Abdullahi Sule, Senator Ahmed Wadada Aliyu or the APC. All the noise about fear is nothing more than grandstanding in Lafia by those who persuaded him to run.
In politics, the easiest way to make a candidate look stronger is to convince him and everyone watching that the entire political establishment is desperate to stop him from running.
Such narratives create excitement in the minds of aspirants and their gullible supporters. They also give supporters something to shout about.
But political excitement is not the same as political strength.
The 2027 Nasarawa governorship election will not be decided by who generates the loudest noise in Lafia. The election will be decided by votes across polling units throughout the state.
To get votes, you must have structure.
You must have grassroots acceptance.
You must have organisation.
And all these require alliances. They require influential political stakeholders who are prepared to work together.
Most importantly, they require a candidate who can bring different interests under one umbrella.
The APC stakeholders’ meeting convened by former Governor Abdullahi Adamu in Lafia has demonstrated that the APC has acquired all these indices. This is where the discussion about Wadada becomes unavoidable.
Rather than saying the APC is afraid of Mohammed Abubakar Adamu, perhaps we should ask a more serious question:
Who does ex-IGP Adamu himself consider the biggest obstacle to his ambition?
If the former IGP were to answer that question privately, without political cameras, campaign slogans or cheering supporters around him, I strongly suspect that the name of Wadada would feature prominently.
Why?
Because Wadada is not entering this election as an unknown quantity.
He has built relationships.
He has cultivated grassroots support.
He has developed political structures.
He has maintained connections with influential figures across the state.
And perhaps most importantly, there is a growing understanding among the political establishment that Wadada is a candidate around whom Nasarawa’s collective interests could be advanced.
In politics, consensus is power.
A candidate may have money but lack acceptance. A candidate may have friends but struggle to connect with ordinary voters.
The strongest candidate is the one who can combine these different elements.
That is why the argument that “they are afraid of ex-IGP Adamu” is too simplistic.
Yes, some politicians do not want him on the ballot. Of course they don’t.
Why would they?
No serious politician deliberately wants to make his opponent’s job easier.
But opposing someone’s candidacy is not the same thing as being afraid of that person.
It is a normal political calculation, and there is nothing unusual about political calculation.
What is unusual is the attempt by ex-IGP Adamu’s supporters to turn ordinary political calculation into evidence that the former IGP has already psychologically defeated Wadada and the APC.
It is here that the Lafia grandstanding comes into focus.
Some people in Lafia apparently saw an opportunity to persuade the former IGP to enter the race and then built false narratives around his candidacy, a narrative suggesting that his political weight is overwhelming.
The question now is: Now that the campaign is moving from conversation to mobilisation, who has the ward structures?
Who has the people on the ground?
Who can move beyond one political circle and appeal across the different interests that make up Nasarawa State?
Who can sit with political leaders in Nasarawa State and build a working coalition?
Who can convert elite support into grassroots mobilisation and grassroots goodwill into actual votes?
These are the questions that should occupy the minds of the ex-IGP himself and his supporters.
And on these questions, Wadada is already ahead.
Indeed, the 2027 election will be predicted strictly on grassroots acceptance, political structure, alliances and elite consensus. And on these fronts, Wadada is the candidate to beat.
Yes, the former IGP’s name is generating plenty of noise in Lafia, but you cannot hear all this noise anywhere outside Lafia. And noise in Lafia is not a political structure.
Grandstanding in Lafia is not grassroots mobilisation.
Political excitement in Lafia is not electoral victory.
At the moment, Wadada has positioned himself very strongly across the length and breadth of Nasarawa State.
So, let us stop pretending that the entire political class is hiding under their beds because Mohammed Abubakar Adamu is on the ballot and running for governor.
Nasarawa’s political equation will not suddenly be rewritten by the noise surrounding his name.
The ballot box will have the final word.
And when all the shouting from Lafia has settled, when the political theatre is over and the campaigns have moved from social media to the wards and polling units, the question will be much simpler:
Who actually has the people?
For now, if the measure is grassroots acceptance, political structure, alliances and elite consensus, the answer remains clear:
Wadada is still the man to beat.
And 2027 will tell the rest of the story.